FirstScrollFS
HomeDailyMarketsMoneyArchive
FirstScrollFinance, explained simply

Start your morning smart.

Written for anyone, whether you have followed markets for years or never once.

Free. One email each trading morning. Unsubscribe anytime.

Not an email person?Get articles on WhatsApp

Sections

  • Daily
  • Markets
  • Money
  • Archive

Apps

  • iOS · coming soon
  • Android · coming soon

Company

  • Sponsorships
  • Contact
  • Privacy
  • Terms

© 2026 FirstScroll Media Inc.

Explainers and context, not investment advice.

Back to Markets
Markets/By FirstScroll Team/Jan 31, 2026/5 min read/Updated 7 Feb 2026

The Sunday Budget: India's "Goldilocks" Gamble in a Tariff-Tense World

The Sunday Budget: India's "Goldilocks" Gamble in a Tariff-Tense World
Today is Saturday, January 31, 2026, and if the Indian economy were a person, it would be doing a high-intensity workout while the rest of the global neighborhood is still hitting the "snooze" button. At First Scroll , we’re calling this the "Quiet Before the Sunday Storm." Tomorrow, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her record-shattering ninth consecutive Union Budget. But before the first file is opened in Parliament, the "trailer" (the Economic Survey) and a sudden market meltdown have already set the stage.
1. The Sunday Budget: A Strategic Curveball 🏟️

For the first time since 1999, the Union Budget will be unveiled on a Sunday (February 1, 2026) at 11:00 AM.

The Market Twist: Contrary to expectations, the stock markets will not be closed. Both the NSE and BSE have announced a special live trading session during the budget speech (regular hours: 9:15 AM to 3:30 PM) to capture immediate reactions.

Why this matters: Historically, Budget days see massive volatility. By trading live on a Sunday, the exchanges are bracing for an "IV (Implied Volatility) Crush" where option prices swing wildly as the Finance Minister speaks. It eliminates the 24-hour "digestion" period, demanding instant decision-making.

2. The "Goldilocks" Survey: A Confident Giant 🐘

The Economic Survey 2025-26, tabled on Thursday, paints a picture of a resilient India standing as a "global bright spot" despite geopolitical friction.

Real GDP FY 26
7.4%
Fastest Growing Major Economy
FY 27 Forecast
6.8-7.2%
Pragmatic Growth Outlook

The Warning: The Survey warns that revenue spending by states on cash transfers has ballooned 5 x, hitting ₹1.7 lakh crore. This "fiscal bleeding" is reportedly sacrificing long-term investments in infrastructure for short-term relief.

3. The Gold Market Meltdown: A Brutal Correction 📉

If you were planning to buy gold today, you just walked into a massive "pre-budget" correction. Gold and silver prices saw their steepest single-day fall in over a decade yesterday.

  • The Drop: In India, 24 K gold prices crashed by nearly ₹8,620 per 10 g to retail at ₹1,60,580. Silver plunged a massive 26% globally.
  • The Cause: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next US Fed Chair has sparked fears of a "regime change" toward hawkish, higher interest rates, strengthening the USD and crushing safe-haven assets.
4. The Startup Pulse: Juspay Joins the Club 🦄

India has crowned its first unicorn of 2026. Bengaluru-based payments infrastructure firm Juspay raised $50 million led by West Bridge Capital at a valuation of $1.2 billion. This marks a turning point for fintech infrastructure, with the company already profitable and processing 300 million daily transactions.

The Sunday Watchlist

Tomorrow's Budget isn't just a list of taxes; it's the survival guide for the next 12 months. Expect focus on:

  • Income Tax: Strong expectations to raise the Standard Deduction from ₹75,000 to ₹1 Lakh to help the middle class battle inflation.
  • Defence: The Ministry of Defence is reportedly seeking a 20% jump in its capital acquisition budget, the steepest single-year jump, prioritizing domestic procurement for firms like HAL and BEL.
  • MSMEs: New digital credit platforms to resolve the ₹8.1 Lakh Cr delayed payment crisis that is stifling small businesses.
Subscribe to First Scroll
Economic Survey 25-26 | Sunday Trading News | KPMG: Budget Analysis

Published in FirstScroll Markets

Share this article

Free daily briefing

Made sense?

We explain one thing like this every trading morning. Markets, business, money, in plain English.

Free. One email each trading morning. Unsubscribe anytime.

Read on your phone? Get each article on WhatsApp instead.

Join on WhatsApp

More in Markets

  • Why Are Bond Yields Rising and Stocks Falling? (2026)

    02 OCT · 5 min read

  • Why do companies use the SEBI settlement mechanism?

    29 SEPT · 5 min read

  • Why Are FPIs Selling Indian Stocks 2026?

    27 SEPT · 5 min read

  • Why did the stock market crash as analysts predicted it would double?

    25 SEPT · 6 min read

  • Why Did Hero Motors IPO Shares Crash 70% Before Listing?

    19 SEPT · 5 min read

All markets→

More in Markets

All markets
Why Are Bond Yields Rising and Stocks Falling? (2026)

Markets

Why Are Bond Yields Rising and Stocks Falling? (2026)

Global bond yields are hitting two-decade highs, creating a vacuum that pulls money from stocks. Here is how rising yields act like gravity for your portfolio.

02 OCT · 5 min read

Why do companies use the SEBI settlement mechanism?

Markets

Why do companies use the SEBI settlement mechanism?

Adani group companies recently paid to settle cases without admitting guilt. Here is how SEBI's legal shortcuts and new formula-based penalties actually work.

29 SEPT · 5 min read

Why Are FPIs Selling Indian Stocks 2026?

Markets

Why Are FPIs Selling Indian Stocks 2026?

Foreign investors have pulled billions from India despite a 10% growth target. Here is how the global AI boom is draining capital from the NSE.

27 SEPT · 5 min read