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MarketsFSBy FirstScroll Team · Jan 31, 2026

Updated on 7 Feb 2026

The Sunday Budget: India's "Goldilocks" Gamble in a Tariff-Tense World

5 min read
The Sunday Budget: India's "Goldilocks" Gamble in a Tariff-Tense World
Today is Saturday, January 31, 2026, and if the Indian economy were a person, it would be doing a high-intensity workout while the rest of the global neighborhood is still hitting the "snooze" button. At First Scroll , we’re calling this the "Quiet Before the Sunday Storm." Tomorrow, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her record-shattering ninth consecutive Union Budget. But before the first file is opened in Parliament, the "trailer" (the Economic Survey) and a sudden market meltdown have already set the stage.
1. The Sunday Budget: A Strategic Curveball 🏟️

For the first time since 1999, the Union Budget will be unveiled on a Sunday (February 1, 2026) at 11:00 AM.

The Market Twist: Contrary to expectations, the stock markets will not be closed. Both the NSE and BSE have announced a special live trading session during the budget speech (regular hours: 9:15 AM to 3:30 PM) to capture immediate reactions.

Why this matters: Historically, Budget days see massive volatility. By trading live on a Sunday, the exchanges are bracing for an "IV (Implied Volatility) Crush" where option prices swing wildly as the Finance Minister speaks. It eliminates the 24-hour "digestion" period, demanding instant decision-making.

2. The "Goldilocks" Survey: A Confident Giant 🐘

The Economic Survey 2025-26, tabled on Thursday, paints a picture of a resilient India standing as a "global bright spot" despite geopolitical friction.

Real GDP FY 26
7.4%
Fastest Growing Major Economy
FY 27 Forecast
6.8-7.2%
Pragmatic Growth Outlook

The Warning: The Survey warns that revenue spending by states on cash transfers has ballooned 5 x, hitting ₹1.7 lakh crore. This "fiscal bleeding" is reportedly sacrificing long-term investments in infrastructure for short-term relief.

3. The Gold Market Meltdown: A Brutal Correction 📉

If you were planning to buy gold today, you just walked into a massive "pre-budget" correction. Gold and silver prices saw their steepest single-day fall in over a decade yesterday.

  • The Drop: In India, 24 K gold prices crashed by nearly ₹8,620 per 10 g to retail at ₹1,60,580. Silver plunged a massive 26% globally.
  • The Cause: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next US Fed Chair has sparked fears of a "regime change" toward hawkish, higher interest rates, strengthening the USD and crushing safe-haven assets.
4. The Startup Pulse: Juspay Joins the Club 🦄

India has crowned its first unicorn of 2026. Bengaluru-based payments infrastructure firm Juspay raised $50 million led by West Bridge Capital at a valuation of $1.2 billion. This marks a turning point for fintech infrastructure, with the company already profitable and processing 300 million daily transactions.

The Sunday Watchlist

Tomorrow's Budget isn't just a list of taxes; it's the survival guide for the next 12 months. Expect focus on:

  • Income Tax: Strong expectations to raise the Standard Deduction from ₹75,000 to ₹1 Lakh to help the middle class battle inflation.
  • Defence: The Ministry of Defence is reportedly seeking a 20% jump in its capital acquisition budget, the steepest single-year jump, prioritizing domestic procurement for firms like HAL and BEL.
  • MSMEs: New digital credit platforms to resolve the ₹8.1 Lakh Cr delayed payment crisis that is stifling small businesses.
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Economic Survey 25-26 | Sunday Trading News | KPMG: Budget Analysis

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