India is rushing to import sugar and pulses because monsoons that look okay on paper can still leave dams empty.
The short answer: India is importing these staples because storage in 178 major reservoirs has dropped to 67% of capacity this week. While rain levels often dominate the news, the 15% monsoon deficiency and dry post-monsoon weeks have left key states with empty dams, threatening the winter harvest.
The Story
A farmer stands near a dam and looks at a landscape that should be lush and soaking after the monsoon months.
Instead, he is looking at a dry bed. The Aliyar dam continues to be empty, a silent witness to a rain season that did not deliver what was promised.
In nearby Andhra Pradesh, the situation is just as grim. Across both states, major dams are filled to less than one-third of their capacity, leaving farmers wondering how they will manage the upcoming winter crops.
Then, the news from New Delhi confirmed the anxiety. The government announced it is extending the deadline to import 1 million metric tonnes of raw sugar.
Importers now have an extension to December 31 to bring in this sugar duty-free, meaning they do not have to pay the usual entry taxes. At the same time, officials are keeping a nervous eye on pulses like chana.
And here is the strange part. We were told the South-West monsoon was "normal" in many parts of the country, yet the government is acting like there is an emergency at the borders.
So here's the question: if the monsoon season is over and was mostly fine, why is India scrambling to import sugar and pulses to keep prices stable?
You see, the problem is not just how much it rains. It is where that water goes and how much of it we manage to trap for later.
Think of India's 178 major reservoirs as a giant battery pack. The monsoon is the charger. We use some water immediately for summer crops, but we need that "battery" to be at high capacity to power the Rabi season, the winter harvest that gives us our wheat, mustard, and pulses.
This year, the charger was faulty. The South-West monsoon ended 15% deficient, which is a significant gap when you are feeding a massive population.
Post-monsoon rains usually top up these levels, but that has failed too. Between October 1 and 21, rain was deficient in 75% of districts across India.
Now add the second ingredient: chana, or chickpeas. This is India's most consumed pulse, used in everything from your evening snacks to daily dal.
To grow a good crop, chana sowing needs cool weather and plenty of moisture in the soil. Because the "battery" is low, some states are already advising farmers to shift to crops that use less water.
This creates a massive headache for the government. If farmers plant less chana because they are worried about water, the price of pulses will skyrocket in a few months.
So who wants what here? The farmer wants enough water to ensure a harvest. The household wants to know why edible oil prices are falling while the cost of a basic protein like dal might be about to jump.
And the government? It wants to prevent a repeat of the drama where onion prices swing so wildly that it becomes a political crisis. To stop that, they use a tool called duty-free imports.
By letting sugar and pulses come into the country without heavy taxes, they increase the supply. More supply usually means prices stay flat, even if the domestic harvest is weak.
But here's the twist. The reservoir levels are not just a little bit low: they are 26.5 percentage points lower than they were at this time last year.
In fact, the storage is 18.5 percentage points below the ten-year average. We are entering the most water-intensive part of the agricultural calendar with a half-empty tank.
Only the central region of India has reservoirs filled above 80%. Everywhere else, from the south to the east, the levels are dropping, and the number of dams filled to capacity has trickled down to just 11.
Now to be clear, there is a small glimmer of hope. The weather office expects rain in coastal Andhra, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala early next week, which could help fill those Southern dams a little.
But for the rest of the country, the slow progress of sowing is a warning sign. When the government extends import deadlines two months in advance, it is a signal that they don't expect the domestic situation to fix itself anytime soon.
So, is the food crisis about a bad monsoon? Not really. It is about a "normal" monsoon that missed the target, followed by a dry October that left our water infrastructure gasping.
The arrival of these emergency shipments will decide if grocery bills stay under control as a changing climate means rain clouds no longer guarantee a full plate.
Until then…
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